Washington: Shadow boxing between the United States and Pakistan regarding Islamabad’s control over its nuclear weapons is threatening to suck in India after a Pakistani official warned that his country "possesses adequate retaliatory capacity to defend its strategic assets."
The big unanswered question: Retaliate against whom and with what?
The latest spat began after a flurry of reports in the Western media about what unnamed US officials describe as "contingency plans" to take control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in the event of an imminent jihadist takeover in the country.
The reports have angered and panicked Pakistan’s military government, and on Monday, the country’s foreign office spokesman lashed out at the "irresponsible conjecture."
In doing so and threatening non-specific retaliation, the spokesman raised new questions about Pakistan’s nuclear posture, which has long been seen as unstable and India-specific.
Current Pakistani nuclear doctrine does not even take into account a nuclear confrontation with the United States. In fact, a 2002 elaboration of Pakistan’s fledgling nuclear doctrine said its "nuclear weapons are aimed only at India" and identified four triggers which would cause Islamabad to use the weapons.
The triggers included: A. If India attacks and conquers a large part of its territory (space threshold), B. India destroys a large part of either its land or air forces (military threshold), C. India proceeds to the economic strangulation of Pakistan (economic strangling) and D. If India destabilises Pakistan through domestic subversion.
The doctrine did not deal with a situation where the United States is involved in any of these acts.
In fact, Pakistan simply lacks both the range and capacity to retaliate militarily against mainland United States, although there are plenty of US interests within reach (Afghanistan and Iraq, for example). Current proliferation concerns also include smuggling into the US of nuclear weapons or fissile material by Pakistan-based Al-Qaida and other rogue elements.
But the latest Pakistani statement left it unclear who and how Islamabad would retaliate against, and if the retaliation would be nuclear or otherwise.
"Suffice it to say that Pakistan possesses adequate retaliatory capacity to defend its strategic assets and sovereignty," it said, while insisting, "Our strategic assets are as safe as that of any other nuclear weapons state."
US and Indian officials would not respond on record to the comments, but on background dismissed it as sabre-rattling. One analyst suggested recently that Pakistan had perfected as a national survival strategy a routine of blackmail through suicide threats.
Officially, neither US nor India nor Israel (the third party attributed with a role in any plans to neutralise Pakistan’s nuclear weapons) have ever spoken about the issue. Most reports in the media have been based on background briefings by unnamed officials and analysts.
Source: www.timesofindia.indiatimes.com
