Not yet time to engage Pak

Ashadh Shuddha Dwitiya

By Swapan Dasgupta

The encouraging feature of the ongoing Indo-Pakistan talks is that there are few expectations of any dramatic breakthrough. This may seem paradoxical but after decades of false starts and irrational optimism, the talks are, at least, couched in greater realism. True, this doesn’t prevent bouts of posturing — a euphemism for contrived bonhomie — and avoiding uncomfortable issues — terrorism tops the list — but at least both sides know where they stand.

The demonstration of self-confident leadership, so necessary to achieve the next breakthrough, is unlikely to happen in a hurry since both countries are wrapped in political uncertainty. In India, the Manmohan Singh Government is in the throes of existential despair over its economic difficulties and the nuke deal. Likewise, the uncertainty over President Pervez Musharraf’s future and the stirrings in civil society has put audacious decision-making on hold. Pakistan, it is clear, will have to sort itself out before it can address larger questions of neighbourhood policy.

It is the developments within Pakistan that are of interest to India. Although a media-organised "summit" may not be the ideal place to gauge the full picture, a few important strands were in evidence at an Indo-Pakistan dialogue organised by Tehelka in London last week.

One of the most visible trends was the growing Pakistani mistrust of the US. The ever-candid Mushahid Hussain, now representing the discredited "King’s Party," expressed the mood bluntly. "Anti-Indianism," he said, "has been replaced by anti-Americanism." The charming Imran Khan, whose abilities I suspect were better served on the cricket field, was outright visceral in his attack on President George W Bush and his "poodle" President Musharraf. He suggested that the Taliban were disgruntled tribals — "they are fundamentalists, not Al Qaeda" — and dearly hoped that "change" in the US presidential election would see a policy reversal.

Imran’s over-romanticised picture of doughty Pushtuns asserting their traditional desire to be left well alone may not be universally shared. Yet, the feeling that the Pakistan Army has no business to wage war on its own people along the Durand Line is resonating in Pakistan society. The liberals believe that America’s dirty war should not be outsourced to Pakistan; the "realists" feel that that a resurrected Taliban will eventually help Pakistan reclaim its strategic depth in Pakistan.

If the diasporic gathering at the "summit" is any guide, anti-US and anti-West sentiments have merged with the perception that Muslims are a beleaguered community globally. This ties in well with the radical Muslim perception that the war on terror is just an expedient cover for a larger civilisational assault on Islam. There is as yet nothing to suggest that the more extreme millenarianism of the Al Qaeda has taken over the diaspora. Yet, there is a well-prepared terrain for such beliefs to take hold.

This radicalisation may seem to be at odds with the liberal churning within Pakistan. The desire for Pakistan to have genuine democracy and for the military (and the ISI) to take on a purely professional role may be good news. The danger is that this headiness is also accompanied by the feeling that somehow democracy will defeat the religious extremists. The temptation to see extremism as purely a reaction to the West’s ham-handed policies is very strong. A few intellectuals apart, Pakistan seems to be in denial about the indigenous impulses that have bred extremism.

Sooner or later the pro-democracy activists will come into conflict with forces that have a non-modernist agenda for Pakistan — although, as of now the battlelines aren’t terribly clear. Will the clash derail democracy yet again? Will it make space for the Army to reclaim its role as the only institution that can safeguard Pakistan? There is a mood of change in Pakistan but there are powerful forces that want a different change. Till the outcome is clearer, India has no choice but to watch developments, with the knowledge that the civil conflict in Pakistan will invariably spill across the border. The time for engaging with Pakistan politically hasn’t yet come.

Source: www.dailypioneer.com

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