Shrinking India, Rising China

Vaishakh Shuddha Ashtami

By Balbir K Punj

Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon was perhaps being diplomatic when he said that India was not worried about the growing presence of China in Nepal. He was referring to the concern voiced by many on the intensifying of Sino-Nepalese relations ever since the Maoists came to power in Kathmandu, assisted at least in part by the UPA Government and the Marxists. Since then, the Maoists in Nepal have had their say on most political matters, often at the expense of parties. Diplomatic niceties apart, the reality is that India should be greatly concerned as the Maoist-led Government is increasingly getting closer to Beijing. In the last year, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, better known as Prachanda, has warmed up to China’s leadership; and other senior leaders of his party have not been far behind. Senior Chinese leader Liu Hongcai has been frequently visiting Kathmandu, and Beijing has been seriously investing manpower and money in building Nepal’s infrastructure, especially roads.

There are other recent Chinese moves that should worry the Indian establishment. Pakistan has been China’s cat’s paw in the sub-continent for long. But of late the weak civilian Government in Islamabad has been leaning even more towards Beijing to counter the pressure being applied by the US and other Western nations on Pakistan to go all out against jihadis of all shades.

How far Islamabad is prepared to go to strengthen its ties with Beijing is evident from the praise that Pakistani President Asif Ali Zadari lavished on the Chinese Government while touring China. “Pakistan-China friendship”, he is supposed to have said, “is higher than the peaks of the Himalayas. It is a truism without exaggeration.” Mr Zardari sought to draw in the entire Bhutto clan in this relationship, recalling the contributions made to Pakistan-China relations by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto. The role played by China in helping Pakistan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons and missiles needs little elaboration.

Rather than the bonhomie demonstrated by Mr Zardari towards Beijing, what should really concern us is his readiness to throw open his country for furthering China’s strategic interests. According to media reports, Mr Zardari has offered the Chinese port facilities at Karachi. These, he pointed to his Chinese hosts, were nearer to western China than Hong Kong and Shanghai. That the Chinese are actively involved in building Gwadar as an opening to the Arabian Sea has been well known for quite some time now.

But what is even more worrying is that Pakistan is now ready to offer other ports to China. In fact, it is actively seeking Chinese penetration in the region. The target, obviously, is India. In the context of the recent revelations by US intelligence about the Pakistani Army’s India fixation, such moves acquire great significance. China would not be unaware of the real caliber of the civilian Government in Pakistan and who really rules that country.

The strategic implications of these moves come into sharper focus when we look at the diplomatic offensive that China has unleashed on east African nations. From here the Chinese are slowly muscling their way into what have so far been areas of exclusive Indian influence. Mauritius and Maldives are strategic bases of operation in the Indian Ocean. Hence it is easy to see why Chinese President Hu Jintao has offered Mauritius development projects worth billions of dollars, including a modern airport. This is huge assistance, considering that Mauritius is a country with a population of 1.5 million people. The fact that Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guanglie has been discussing bilateral military co-operation with his Maldivian counterpart, Mr Ameen Faisal, should definitely alert policy-makers in New Delhi.

The western Indian Ocean is a critical shipping thoroughfare. The United States of America and Britain have a joint naval presence at Diego Garcia near Mauritius. If China can get access to the western Indian Ocean through Pakistani ports and then draw a naval defence line all the way down to Mauritius or Maldives, it would a serious headache for the Indian Navy.

Mr Zardari was not just being polite when he said China could use Pakistani ports as and when it liked. In fact, Islamabad is trying to snub New Delhi by convincing Tehran to substitute India with China in the trilateral oil and gas pipeline project that the three countries have been discussing for quite some time now.

But the larger military advantage it will acquire in case China is able to navigate its way into the Indian Ocean is not lost on Islamabad.

Beijing has already built a submarine base in the South China Sea to be close to the Bay of Bengal. Also, China has been able to outbid India for Burmese gas and has been able to bring that country into its sphere of influence. The recent moves that Pakistan and China are jointly making in the UN to block any expansion of the Security Council so as to prevent India being inducted as a permanent member, should be read along with these developments.

Again, it is in this context that we must closely monitor the developments in Bangladesh, where a mutiny by its paramilitary force, the Bangladesh Rifles, was successfully quelled by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina with the Bangladeshi Army fully backing her. This is a sign of hope, but the real forces behind the mutiny have to be found and dealt with because Pakistan’s ISI has been trying to entrench itself in Dhaka and to use jihadi elements there for carrying out attacks against India.

The problem in India is the presence of a political party — the CPI(M) — which openly supports China and refuses to see how that country is gaining at the cost of India’s interests. If national security is to be a critical issue in this general election, the pro-China leanings of the CPI(M), and its support of Islamic orthodoxy, especially in West Bengal and Kerala, needs to be viewed from a national perspective.

Source: Daily Pioneer

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