Pakistan in turmoil — Army, govt on collision course

Ashwin Krushna Chaturdashi / Ashwin Amawasya, Kaliyug Varsha 5111

The tranquility around Pakistan’s Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi was rudely disturbed on October 11. A small group of militants clad in military uniforms from the “Amjad Farooqi Group” of the Tehriq-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) struck at the hallowed precincts of the Army Headquarters, killed army personnel, including a Brigadier and a Lieutenant Colonel, and held the army Headquarters hostage for around 18 hours.

A few days earlier, a militant dressed in the uniform of the predominantly Pashtun Frontier Constabulary carried out a suicide bomb attack on the UN offices at the very heart of Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. The attacks had evidently been planned by people with inside knowledge of security arrangements in the most sensitive areas of the national capital.

Unseemly tussle

These attacks come at a time when Pakistan is witnessing an unseemly tussle between the elected Government headed by President Zardari, and the army Chief, Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, over the provisions of the Kerry-Lugar Act passed by the US Congress, authorising $7.5 billion of economic assistance to Pakistan.

A statement issued last week after a meeting of Corps Commanders presided over by Gen Kayani alleged the provisions of the US legislation violated Pakistani sovereignty and called on the country’s Parliament to decide whether the provisions of the Act should be accepted.

Interestingly, this army intervention — quite obviously intended to create a rift between President Zardari, a supporter of the US legislation, and Parliament — came after an unprecedented meeting in Rawalpindi between Shahbaz Sharif, the Chief Minister of Punjab and brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was accompanied by the leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly, Chaudhury Nisar Ali Khan, on the one hand, and Army Chief, Gen Ashfaq Kayani, on the other. Chaudhury Nisar is spearheading the opposition to the Kerry-Lugar Bill in Parliament.

Responding to the army’s insubordination, Zardari’s spokesman noted that it was inappropriate for the army to comment publicly on a sensitive issue and that its concerns should have, more appropriately, been placed before the Defence Committee of the Cabinet.

Reflecting US concerns

The furore over the Kerry-Lugar Act that has been fomented by Gen Kayani is largely contrived. No one denies that the cash-strapped country desperately needs foreign economic assistance.

Reflecting American and international concerns, the Kerry-Lugar Act requires the Secretary of State to certify that the Pakistan government has acted to prevent “Al Qaeda, the Taliban and associated terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed from operating in the territory of Pakistan, including carrying out cross-border attacks, into neighbouring countries.”

There are also provisions seeking certification that entities in Pakistan are not involved in nuclear proliferation, that the Pakistan army is under effective civilian and Parliamentary scrutiny and control, and that all support for terrorist groups from “elements within the Pakistan military or its intelligence services,” has ceased.

These provisions for monitoring the role of Pakistan’s military and its intelligence services have obviously rattled Gen Kayani and his supporters. American displeasure at the ISI’s support for Mullah Omar and Taliban military commanders such as Sirajuddin Haqqani, who are spearheading attacks against American forces in Afghanistan, has been frequently voiced.

‘Support’ and ‘attack’ moves

The actions of the Pakistan army suggest that while it may reluctantly take on Taliban groups that question the writ of the Pakistan state, such as Maulana Fazlullah’s supporters in Swat and the TTP led now by Hakeemullah Mehsud, in South Waziristan, it will continue to support Afghan and Pakistani Taliban groups waging Jihad against the Americans in Afghanistan.

For over three months, the army has been preparing to attack the strongholds in South Waziristan of Hakeemullah Mehsud and his Uzbek allies from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which was led by Tahir Yuldeshev. Yuldeshev had close links with the ISI since the 1990s, when the ISI facilitated his links with the Taliban and Al Qaeda and used his Uzbek forces to target the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, led by Ahmed Shah Masood. Yuldeshev was reportedly killed in a US drone attack on September 26.

The Pakistan army has now amassed around 28,000 soldiers for an assault, backed by air power and American drones, in South Waziristan. The assault by the TTP on the army headquarters in Rawalpindi is a clear warning to the Pakistani military establishment that the TTP will hit at targets across Pakistan, if the army targets it.

Past operations of the Pakistan army in South Waziristan, bordering Afghanistan, have failed miserably. It remains to be seen whether the army has the ability and courage to take on the TTP and its Uzbek and other allies in South Waziristan, successfully.

Moreover, there had to be support from elements within the security forces, in recent terrorist attacks in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, as the militants evidently had inside information on the vulnerabilities in the security structure.

Can the army and Frontier Constabulary now be sure that Pashtun soldiers, who hail from the tribal areas and constitute a substantial portion of the security forces, will remain steadfast in their resolve in operations that target the homes of their kith and kin? Moreover, while there was widespread political consensus within Pakistan, in army operations in Swat, which is very close to the capital Islamabad, will there be a sustained political consensus if operations in South Waziristan are prolonged?

Finally, the impending operations in South Waziristan are based on the assumption that Taliban groups elsewhere in the tribal areas will not come to the aid of their erstwhile allies in South Waziristan.

Is this a realistic assumption? As more and more groups once supported by the ISI turn against the Pakistan army, the US Ambassador to Pakistan, Anne Patterson, recently remarked: “You cannot tolerate a viper in your bosom without getting bitten”!!

New challenge

Pakistan is moving into even more turbulent and troubled waters as its army, given to dictating the national agenda, confronts new challenges. But perhaps the most shocking aspect of these developments is that Mr Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted in a military coup a decade ago, now finds it expedient to make common cause with Gen Kayani to challenge the authority of a democratically elected Government.

It was precisely such misguided opportunism that led to the destabilisation of democratic Governments in the 1990s. Mr Nawaz Sharif had then colluded with the ISI in forming an Alliance of right-wing parties to ensure the defeat of Benazir Bhutto, whose Government had been dismissed by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, working together with the then Army Chief, General Mirza Aslam Beg.

Benazir Bhutto, in turn, had no great sympathy for Nawaz Sharif when he was ousted by Gen Musharraf in October 1999.

Moreover, even today, the political establishment seems divided on the utility of terrorist groups in Pakistan’s relations with its neighbours. Gen Musharraf recently noted that Mr Nawaz Sharif has never directly criticised either the Taliban or the Al Qaeda.

Source: The Hindu