Muslim votes have become a hot commodity in Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati in her rally last Sunday said that Muslims should not be confused and must come with the BSP. Her remark caused a lot of furore on the social media, with some asking how people would have reacted had a BJP leader made a similar appeal to Hindus.
However, the BSP wants to make a new equation of Dalit and Muslims, and has to strengthen it. On the other hand, the SP has to enforce the equation of Muslims and Yadavs. But it seems that Muslim votes will be divided among these parties. There will be strategic voting of Muslims and they might go with either of the two which has a greater chance of victory.
So, the BSP’s strategy is to get Muslim votes in western UP en masse. There are 120 seats right from Noida to Agra, and if Muslims and Dalits come together on these seats, the BSP will get huge benefits. There was a division of votes in the Lok Sabha Elections due to the SP, and the BJP had reaped its benefit. So, this time it is being considered that there will be no Samajwadi factor.
In the same manner, there is a chance that SP will get Muslim votes in eastern UP. Ansari Brothers, who have recently joined the party, have a good hold over the areas near Varanasi like Ballia and Mau. Apart from these, in areas like Etawah, Mainpuri, Kannauj and Azamgarh — where Mulayam Singh Yadav’s family has good hold — Muslims will certainly go with them. In these areas, Muslims votes will not go in favour of the BSP. However, this is somewhat clear that the BSP and SP will get Muslim votes according to areas and the Congress is nowhere in the scene.
KEEPING RAHUL AWAY
Despite all its efforts, the Congress is stuck at number 4 in UP, and doesn’t have good scope of getting adequate seats. According to internal surveys of the party and responses after Rahul Gandhi’s Kisan Yatra, the party is seeing polarisation of Muslim votes and is apprehensive about getting support from the community despite huge sympathy in favour of it. In the same manner, it will get Brahmin votes on selected seats only.
Sources in the Congress say that after this assessment, the party has strategically decided to keep Rahul away, and the campaign of Priyanka Gandhi will also be very limited. However, this is almost decided that Priyanka will address a rally in Allahabad on November 19, the birth anniversary of Indira Gandhi. After that, she will campaign for UP elections but it will be very limited.
It is also being said that from now, Rahul will not be fully devoted to UP. He has been reminded of 2012 when the then in-charge Digvijaya Singh had utilised Rahul in UP and despite all efforts, the Congress had improved only six seats. This time also the picture is similar. So, strategists of the Congress are advising Rahul to concentrate more on Uttarakhand, Punjab, and even Goa.
PK’S PROBLEMS IN CONG
There is bizarre politics in the Congress. On one hand, almost all decisions related to elections are being taken on the advice of Prashant Kishor, and on the other hand, many veteran leaders of the party are spreading rumors that Rahul is now keeping distance from PK. Some also say Congress treasurer Motilal Vora has cut the bills given by him. Though it’s true that PK and his team are not getting as much freedom as they did with Narendra Modi during 2012-2014, and later with Nitish Kumar in 2015, but the situation is not as bad as it is being made out to be.
A close associate of PK says there is red-tapism in the Congress system; it is difficult to take permission for anything and also to get bills passed. But there is clarity over strategic decisions, it is claimed. It is being said that Rahul and his youth brigade are working as per the strategies devised by PK.
In UP, they are trying for a strategic partnership or alliance with either RLD or JDU. It is being said that Rahul has become a fan of this idea. Ideas of Kisan Yatra and khat sabha were also endorsed by Rahul, and now the Congress will emphatically raise the issue of farmers in Punjab. In Punjab, PK has kept the option of alliance open and Rahul has endorsed that too.
RECONCILIATION WITHIN SP
Attempts of reconciliation have started in the SP, and ways to move forward have been devised after assessing the political losses of the recent fiasco. Sources in the party say Mulayam has taken the initiative and has motivated all leaders to come together. It was at the instance of Mulayam that Ram Gopal Yadav sorted out his differences with Amar Singh, and said there was no outsider in the party. At the same time, Amar Singh said he was a servant of Akhilesh Yadav. Amar Singh went on to say that Akhilesh will be the CM candidate of the SP in 2017 elections.
This statement has made several things clear. There was speculation that Mulayam might take the command in his hands before elections; it was also being said that Shivpal Yadav might become the CM candidate. But now all these rumours have been put to rest. Sources say that to placate both Shivpal and Akhilesh, separate teams have been made for them.
Of course there are two different viewpoints on the issue of nationalism. First, Mulayam backed the surgical strike, and now Amar Singh has praised Narendra Modi. But recently, Akhilesh had supported Rahul’s statement. In fact, leaders of the SP have given two different messages to two vote banks with the two statements.
CHALLENGE FOR OPPOSITION
Almost all Opposition parties are confused and of the view that it is very difficult to counter the move of the BJP in the run-up to UP elections. That is why all parties are in a search of a way out. The Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, and Samajwadi Party are facing the greatest problems and this is the reason why leaders of these parties are trying their best to mitigate its effect.
Now, it is easy to understand why Rahul had alleged that the Prime Minister is a broker of martyrs’ blood. It is natural that the Congress leaders will support Rahul’s statement, but it is interesting that Akhilesh also endorsed it. He said Rahul must have said this after giving good thought to it, and could also have some proof. Before this, during his Kisan Yatra in UP, Rahul had raised the issue of soldiers and demanded that their salary, perks and pension be increased.
Now, the Opposition has got an issue of cut in pension of soldiers. Though the Government is outrightly rejecting it, the Congress and its supporters have publicised on social media that there is a heavy cut in the pension of disabled soldiers. Randeep Surjewala, chief spokesperson of the Congress, addressed a press conference on this issue and raised many questions.
Arvind Kejriwal and his team were way ahead in this propaganda against the Government. They are reiterating that on one hand the BJP is trying to cash in on the valour of soldiers, and on the other hand, the Government is cutting their pension. The Congress has also raised the issue of discordance in one rank, one pension to attack the Government.
Source : Daily Pioneer
